As India grapples with increasingly severe heatwaves that bring our cities to a standstill and claim thousands of lives, a groundbreaking study offers both hope and a sobering warning. The 2015 Paris Agreement, researchers say, could help the world—and India specifically—avoid 57 dangerously hot days each year if countries follow through on their emission-cutting plans.
The comprehensive report by Climate Central and World Weather Attribution shows that if nations successfully deliver on their current commitments and limit global warming to 2.6°C this century, India could experience 30 fewer scorching days annually compared to a scenario where warming reaches 4°C. For a country where heat is already the deadliest form of weather, this difference could mean the protection of countless lives and livelihoods.
The Stark Reality of Inaction
The study paints a concerning picture of what India faces without effective climate action. At 4°C of warming—the baseline level projected in 2015 before the Paris Agreement was signed—the world would have experienced an average of 114 hot days per year. The researchers analyzed the top 10% warmest temperatures across countries, days that are associated with significantly increased health risks.
For India, the implications are particularly severe. The study found that since 2015, an additional 0.3°C of warming has already resulted in 11 more hot days globally per year. In India specifically, recent heat events have become twice as likely due to this seemingly small temperature increase. Prof Friederike Otto from Imperial College London emphasized that “every fraction of a degree of warming—whether it is 1.4, 1.5, or 1.7°C—will mean the difference between safety and suffering for millions of people.”
India’s Heat Crisis and the Path Forward
The research examined six recent devastating heat events across the globe, including one in Asia that brought cities to a halt and likely killed tens of thousands of people. At 4°C of warming, such heatwaves would be about 3 to 6°C hotter and 5 to 75 times more likely than today. Even at 2.6°C—the current trajectory if countries meet their pledges—these events would still be 1.5 to 3°C hotter and 3 to 35 times more likely.
Dr Joyce Kimutai, a researcher at Imperial College London, warned that “we are on track to exceed the 1.5°C target of the Paris Agreement this century,” but stressed that this doesn’t mean we need a new goal. “Warming has to be kept as far below 2°C as possible,” she said, highlighting that developing countries like India, which are least responsible for historical emissions, are suffering the worst impacts.
Progress on Adaptation But More Needed
The study acknowledges that India has made strides in adapting to extreme heat since 2015. Heat action plans and early warning systems, which are highly effective at reducing heat deaths, have been developed in several Indian cities. Today, about half of all countries globally have warning systems, and at least 47 have action plans in place.
However, the researchers emphasize that many parts of Asia still need to develop comprehensive early warning systems and heat-health plans. Only half of national weather services worldwide currently issue heat warnings. Emmanuel Raju from the University of Copenhagen noted that “the majority of the world, primarily in low resource settings, are barely coping with extreme heat. This is a problem of injustice as people are pushed beyond their limits to cope and adapt.”
The Urgency of Fossil Fuel Transition
The scientists are unequivocal in their message: while the Paris Agreement is working, countries need to accelerate their shift away from oil, gas, and coal. Dr Kristina Dahl from Climate Central warned, “We are still heading for a dangerously hot future. The impacts of recent heatwaves show that many countries are not well prepared to deal with 1.3°C of warming, let alone the 2.6°C of warming projected.”
Joseph Giguere, a research associate at Climate Central, put the human cost in stark terms: “From 2015 to 2023, with an additional 0.3°C of warming, the world now sees an average of 11 more hot days per year. That’s not just a number—delaying the shift away from fossil fuels means millions more people are exposed to life-threatening conditions.”
What This Means for India’s Future
For India, a nation of 1.4 billion people with rapidly growing energy needs, the path forward requires balancing development with climate action. The study emphasizes that developed countries that have caused most of the warming need to take the lead and move much faster. However, India’s own transition away from fossil fuels remains crucial for protecting its citizens from increasingly deadly heat.
Long-term solutions are essential, including increasing shaded areas and trees in cities, strengthening health systems, and ensuring that adaptation finance reaches those who need it most. Currently, investments in early warning systems and action plans remain limited in many Indian cities and regions.
A Framework That Works
Despite the challenges, the study’s authors are clear that the Paris Agreement is making a difference. Bernadette Woods Placky, Chief Meteorologist at Climate Central, stated, “The Paris Agreement works. It shows that when countries come together, they can accelerate emission cuts for a safer future.”
The agreement requires countries to set new emission reduction plans every five years, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs). This mechanism allows for progressively stronger commitments as technology advances and political will strengthens.
Prof Otto emphasized that “the Paris Agreement is a powerful, legally binding framework that can help us avoid the most severe impacts of climate change. However, countries need to do more to shift away from oil, gas, and coal. We have all the knowledge and technology needed to transition away from fossil fuels, but stronger, fairer policies are needed to move faster.”
The Choice Before Us
The research conducted by 18 scientists from Climate Central and World Weather Attribution makes clear that every decision matters. The difference between 2.6°C and 4°C of warming translates to 57 fewer dangerously hot days each year globally, and 30 fewer such days for India specifically. With heat causing an estimated half a million deaths worldwide annually, these numbers represent real lives that can be saved through determined climate action.
As India stands at this crossroads, the message from the scientific community is urgent but not despairing. The tools for change exist, the framework is in place, and the benefits of action are substantial. What’s needed now is the political will to accelerate the transition and the resources to help communities adapt to the changes already underway
