For the first time, a peer-reviewed study published in Nature has drawn a direct line between the emissions of individual fossil fuel and cement companies and specific heatwaves around the world. This groundbreaking research analyzed 213 heatwaves across 63 countries between 2000 and 2023, attributing their intensity and frequency to climate change driven by the so-called “Carbon Majors” — 180 companies responsible for the bulk of industrial carbon emissions.
These findings provide unprecedented evidence that corporations such as Saudi Aramco, ExxonMobil, Gazprom, Chevron, BP, Shell, and Coal India are not just abstract contributors to global warming but direct drivers of deadly weather events like the 2021 Pacific Northwest heat dome and the 2023 European heatwaves.
India’s Heatwave Reality
India has experienced some of the harshest consequences of climate change-linked extreme weather. Out of eight major heatwaves studied since 2000, four would have been virtually impossible without climate change. These include:
- May 2002: Sweeping across Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Orissa, and West Bengal.
- April–May 2005: Affecting Andhra Pradesh, Rajasthan, Orissa, Bihar, Jharkhand, Tamil Nadu, and Uttar Pradesh.
- June 2019: Severe heat in Karnataka, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh.
- March–April 2022: Scorching temperatures across Maharashtra and West Rajasthan.
Coal India, one of the top global polluters, ranks fifth worldwide with over 8,500 MtCO₂e emissions between 2016 and 2022, accounting for 3% of global carbon dioxide emissions. This underlines India’s dual challenge: balancing development needs while managing its responsibility in global climate action.
Heatwave in Other Major Countries
Australia
- Temperatures peaking at 49°C.
- Power and transport disruptions; over 374 deaths (2009), 167 deaths (2014).
- 2009: 20x more likely | 2014: 7x more likely | 2018-19: 10,000x more likely.
Japan
- Record heat up to 39.5°C; several heatwaves since 2000 linked to climate change.
- Deaths: 7 (2004), 55 (2015).
- Tokyo: 40x more likely (2004); major events 2015 & 2022 were virtually impossible without climate change.
South Korea
- Seoul hit 39.6°C (2018–2022).
- At least 29 heatstroke deaths.
- Both major events over 10,000x more likely.
Belgium, Denmark, Norway
- Belgium: 7/9 heatwaves >10x more likely; “code red” warning issued.
- Denmark: 6,000x more likely (2022); all-time record 35.9°C.
- Norway: Recent heatwaves up to 14x more likely; Longyearbyen exceeded polar climate threshold.
France
- Multiple events: 2006 (2,065 deaths), 2019 (1,500 deaths), 45.9°C record.
- Heatwaves: up to 98x more likely; red alerts for heat.
Germany, Italy, Spain
- Germany: New record 40.5°C, thousands of deaths; 97x more likely (2022).
- Italy: 18,000 heat-related deaths (2022); 6/7 events impossible without climate change.
- Spain: 8,300 deaths (2023); up to 300x more likely; records above 46°C.
UK
- All 8 studied heatwaves since 2000: minimum 3x more likely, 166x more likely (2022).
- 2,985 excess deaths (2022).
Canada, US, Brazil
- Canada: Deadliest weather event (2021): 619 deaths; 5x more likely (2018).
- US: 9 major events, 4 impossible without climate change; regions impacted include Texas, California, Pacific Northwest (2021 record).
- Brazil: 32 deaths linked to heat (2010).
The Carbon Majors and Their Role
According to the study, just 14 companies alone polluted enough to individually cause more than 50 heatwaves that would otherwise have been impossible. These include Saudi Aramco, Gazprom, ExxonMobil, Chevron, BP, and Shell.
From 2016 to 2022, China’s coal sector alone contributed 25.8% of global CO₂ emissions, while state-owned entities like Saudi Aramco and Gazprom accounted for nearly 5% and 3.3% respectively. In India’s case, Coal India emerges as the single largest domestic contributor.
Rising Likelihood of Heatwaves
The research reveals a sharp escalation in the frequency of heatwaves:
- In the 2000s, climate change made such events 20 times more likely.
- By the 2010s, they became 200 times more likely.
This exponential increase highlights how fossil fuel-driven warming is accelerating extreme weather risks.
Implications for Climate Justice
The legal and policy implications of this study are profound. Courts are already considering cases where fossil fuel companies may be held responsible for climate disasters. The International Court of Justice has recently ruled that fossil fuel production could be an “internationally wrongful act,” entitling victims to reparations.
Legal precedents such as Luciano Lliuya v. RWE in Germany and climate superfund laws in Vermont and New York suggest a growing momentum to make polluters pay. This research provides the scientific backbone for such litigation, quantifying direct corporate responsibility for human suffering, ecosystem losses, and economic damages.
Expert Voices on Accountability
According to Richard Heede, Climate Accountability Institute, companies may be asked to compensate individuals and communities harmed by heatwaves or floods, rising seas, droughts, and fires made significantly worse by the carbon fuels they continue to market.
Cassidy DiPaola, Make Polluters Pay Campaign said, “We can now point to specific heat waves and say, ‘Saudi Aramco did this. ExxonMobil did this. Shell did this.”
Dr. Rupert Stuart-Smith, University of Oxford added that with clearer scientific proof of the impacts of companies’ emissions, firms’ exposure to legal risks is continuing to rise.
Dr. Friederike Otto, Imperial College London stated that instead of shifting to renewable energy, carbon majors misled the public and lobbied to keep the world dependent on fossil fuels. The planet has already warmed by 1.3°C, and without urgent change, warming could reach 3°C this century.”
Louise Hutchins, Make Polluters Pay International expressed his opinion and said that the carbon majors must pay for the devastation they’ve caused. They knew the risks, yet put profits before people. The pressure is building, and we are not stopping.
Why This Matters for Everyone
This study is not just about numbers and charts; it is about lives lost, crops failed, homes destroyed, and communities displaced. It reframes the climate crisis from an abstract global challenge to a direct chain of accountability — from corporate emissions to deadly local consequences.
For India and other vulnerable countries, where heatwaves are already testing the limits of adaptation, these findings strengthen the case for demanding accountability from global polluters. The science is clear: heatwaves that devastated lives and livelihoods were not acts of fate — they were fueled by corporate emissions.
