As Indian households grapple with rising food prices, a new culprit emerges beyond traditional market forces: climate change. The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events are directly impacting our kitchen budgets, making everyday vegetables like tomatoes, onions, and potatoes significantly more expensive. Understanding this connection is crucial for every Indian family as we navigate an era of climate volatility.
The Weather-Price Connection
Research by the Reserve Bank of India reveals a stark reality: weather patterns are now major drivers of food inflation in India. On average, rainfall changes raise vegetable inflation by about 1.24 percentage points, while temperature changes increase it by around 1.30 points. This might seem like small numbers, but their impact on household budgets is profound.
India’s agricultural vulnerability stems from its heavy dependence on natural weather patterns. With 65% of cropped land remaining unirrigated and agriculture relying on the southwest monsoon for over 75% of annual rainfall, the sector remains at the mercy of increasingly erratic weather. When weather deviates from normal patterns, the effects ripple directly through to vegetable prices across the country.
The Tomato, Potato, Onion Crisis
The vegetables that form the backbone of Indian cuisine—tomatoes, onions, and potatoes (collectively known as TOP vegetables)—are particularly vulnerable to weather shocks. These short-duration, perishable crops are highly sensitive to sudden weather changes and exhibit sharp price volatility that affects every household’s food budget.
The 2023 tomato crisis exemplifies this vulnerability. Heavy rains in major producing states of Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka caused production to decline by 10.9% and 12.9% respectively. The impact was immediate and severe: tomato prices at Delhi’s Azadpur Mandi skyrocketed from ₹18 per kilogram in June 2023 to ₹67 per kilogram in July—an increase of over 270%.
Similarly, onions faced their own weather-induced crisis in 2023. Unseasonal rain and hailstorms in Maharashtra, the country’s largest onion-producing state, led to a devastating 28.5% production drop. Prices surged to ₹39 per kilogram in November, straining household budgets across the nation.
Potatoes, the third pillar of Indian vegetable consumption, also suffered significant losses. Unseasonal rain in West Bengal and frost in Uttar Pradesh reduced production by 7% in 2023-24. This shortage kept potato prices elevated throughout 2024, demonstrating how weather shocks can have long-lasting effects on food inflation.
The Inflation Spiral
The cumulative effect of these weather-induced supply disruptions created an inflationary spiral that affected the entire food system. Vegetable inflation spiked to 37% in July 2023 during the tomato shock and reached 42% in October 2024 during the potato shortfall. Overall consumer food price inflation peaked at 11.5% in July 2023 and 10.87% in October 2024, significantly above the Reserve Bank’s comfort zone.
The year 2024 was particularly challenging, marked as the hottest year on record. Heatwaves and erratic rainfall patterns drove prices of all three key vegetables above historical levels, creating sustained pressure on household food budgets. This pattern reflects a broader trend where climate volatility is becoming a permanent feature of India’s food inflation landscape.
Why Small Farmers Bear the Brunt
The human cost of climate-induced food inflation extends beyond consumer prices to the farmers who produce these essential vegetables. Small and marginal farmers, who dominate India’s vegetable supply chain, face disproportionate losses when extreme weather strikes. These farmers typically lack adequate storage facilities, insurance coverage, and climate adaptation support systems.
Unlike large commercial operations, smallholder farmers cannot easily absorb the financial shocks of crop losses. They often lack the resources to invest in protective infrastructure or the financial cushion to weather multiple seasons of climate-related losses. This vulnerability not only affects their livelihoods but also contributes to supply instability that drives price volatility.
Regional Concentration Amplifies Risk
India’s vegetable production is geographically concentrated, with specific states dominating the supply of particular crops. This concentration amplifies the impact of regional weather events on national prices. When Karnataka and Himachal Pradesh experience excessive rainfall, tomato supplies across the country are affected. Similarly, weather disruptions in Maharashtra can create nationwide onion shortages.
This geographic concentration means that localized extreme weather events—which are becoming more frequent due to climate change—can have disproportionate national impacts. A hailstorm in one district or unseasonal rain in a key producing region can affect vegetable prices in markets hundreds of kilometers away.
The Path Forward
Addressing climate-induced food inflation requires a comprehensive approach that builds resilience at every level of the food system. Promoting climate-resilient crop varieties and protected cultivation methods, such as greenhouses for tomatoes, can help shield production from weather extremes.
Improving supply chain infrastructure through expanded cold storage facilities, refrigerated transport, and better warehousing can reduce post-harvest losses and help stabilize prices during supply disruptions. Weather-informed price forecasting systems and timely advisories can help both farmers and consumers prepare for potential price shocks.
Strengthening social protection mechanisms, including index-linked insurance for farmers and nutrition safety nets for vulnerable households, can help cushion the impact of climate-induced food price volatility. These measures are essential for protecting both producers and consumers from the growing risks of climate change.
Preparing for Climate Reality
As extreme weather events become more frequent and intense, Indians must prepare for a future where climate shocks regularly affect food prices. Understanding this connection empowers consumers to make informed decisions and supports policy discussions about building climate resilience in our food systems.
The challenge is clear: climate change is no longer a distant threat but a present reality affecting every household’s food budget. Recognizing this connection is the first step toward building a more resilient food system that can weather the storms ahead while keeping nutritious food affordable for all Indians./isolated-segment.html
