The recent tragic loss of 124 lives, including 63 children, across Pakistan since late June serves as a stark reminder of how climate change is transforming weather patterns into deadly phenomena. As Pakistan grapples with intensifying extreme weather events, neighboring India faces similar vulnerabilities that demand immediate attention from policymakers and citizens alike.
Pakistan’s Climate Vulnerability Crisis
Pakistan, home to over 250 million people, stands among the world’s most climate-vulnerable nations. The country’s recent monsoon season has proven particularly devastating, with Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces bearing the heaviest toll—49 and 38 deaths respectively since June 24, according to the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA).
This tragedy is not an isolated incident. The devastating 2022 floods remain fresh in memory, claiming nearly 1,700 lives and displacing more than 30 million people nationwide. These recurring disasters highlight Pakistan’s increasing susceptibility to climate-induced extreme weather events.
The fact is, mountainous regions of Pakistan are experiencing unprecedented temperature extremes. Just a month ago, parts of the mountainous region recorded temperatures above 48 degrees Celsius, despite being situated at least 1,200 meters above sea level.
The implications extend far beyond immediate temperature records. Gilgit-Baltistan, home to more than 13,000 glaciers according to a study by Pakistan’s Ministry of Climate Change and the Italian research institute EvK2CNR, faces accelerated glacial melting. This excessive melting creates a cascading effect, heightening flood risks, threatening infrastructure, and compromising water security for millions.
India’s Monsoon Vulnerability
While Pakistan struggles with current climate impacts, India faces similar threats during monsoon seasons. Climate specialists warn that several Indian regions remain at high risk of severe and recurring floods due to heavy rainfall, riverine overflow, urban drainage challenges, and climate change impacts.
The Himalayan and hill states present particular concerns. Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh experience dangerous combinations of hilly terrain, intense rainfall, and glacial melts that trigger flash floods and landslides. Districts like Chamoli, Rudraprayag, and Mandi have emerged as especially vulnerable zones.
Similarly, Sikkim and North Bengal hills face recurring threats of landslides and flash floods during intense monsoon periods. Environmental scientist Dr. Rajesh Kumar emphasizes, “These regions share geological and climatic similarities with Pakistan’s affected areas, making them equally susceptible to extreme weather events.”
The Science Behind Intensifying Weather Events
Climate experts consistently point to specific mechanisms driving these increasingly severe weather patterns. The fundamental driver remains rising greenhouse gas concentrations, particularly carbon dioxide and methane, which trap additional heat in the atmosphere and warm land, air, and oceans.
This warming creates a feedback loop of intensifying weather events. Warmer air holds significantly more moisture—approximately 7% more per 1°C of warming—directly increasing the likelihood of intense rainfall and flooding. Simultaneously, higher temperatures accelerate evaporation, drying soils and creating conditions for more frequent and severe droughts and wildfires.
Ocean dynamics play an equally crucial role. Warmer oceans provide additional energy for tropical storms, making hurricanes and cyclones more intense and often leading to faster intensification. Rising sea levels, caused by melting ice sheets and expanding warm water, compound coastal flooding risks during storms and high tides.
Heavy Rainfall Mechanisms
The relationship between warming and precipitation intensity follows well-established scientific principles. As atmospheric temperatures rise, the capacity for moisture retention increases dramatically. This enhanced moisture content translates directly into heavier rainfall events that frequently exceed historical records for both duration and volume.
Meteorologist Dr. Priya Sharma explains, “We’re witnessing rainfall events that surpass previous records not just marginally, but significantly. The additional moisture in warmer air masses creates precipitation events of unprecedented intensity.”
Hurricanes and Cyclones: A Growing Threat
Tropical cyclone behavior also reflects climate change impacts. Warmer ocean surface temperatures provide additional energy for these systems, increasing their intensity and rainfall potential. While total storm numbers may not necessarily increase, the proportion of strongest storms—categories 4 and 5—is rising notably.
This trend particularly concerns experts monitoring the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, where both Pakistan and India remain vulnerable to increasingly intense cyclonic systems.
Scientific Consensus and Future Outlook
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and multiple international scientific organizations maintain consistent findings: human-induced climate change is making extreme weather events both more frequent and more severe globally. While natural climate variability continues playing a role, long-term trends are primarily driven by rising global temperatures due to greenhouse gas emissions.
For South Asian nations like Pakistan and India, this scientific consensus translates into an urgent need for enhanced preparedness, improved early warning systems, and comprehensive adaptation strategies. The recent casualties in Pakistan serve as a sobering reminder that climate change impacts are not future projections—they are current realities demanding immediate action.
As extreme weather events become more frequent and intense, regional cooperation and climate adaptation measures become not just beneficial, but essential for protecting millions of vulnerable lives across the subcontinent.
Impact of Black Carbon on Himalayan Glaciers
Talking to PrepNiti, Dr.Seema Javed, Independent Journalist & Consultant at Global Strategic Communication Council has said that Government of India should ban the desiel and petrol vehicles in Hilly regions with the immediate effect. She said, “We are all aware that vehicle pollution plays a significant role in contributing to heat stress. The major pollutants emitted by vehicles include carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx), particulate matter (PM), hydrocarbons (HC), and volatile organic compounds (VOCs). In addition, vehicles release greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO₂) and nitrous oxide (N₂O).”
“The accumulation of black carbon on Hindu Kush glaciers, caused by pollution, has significantly accelerated their melting. To preserve these glaciers, we must strictly ban all petrol and diesel vehicles in the Himalayan region—similar to the action taken following the MC Mehta writ to protect the Taj Mahal from pollution. This is entirely feasible; all it requires is strong political will to implement the necessary measures,” Dr. Seema added.
Further she alerted that most regions of Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh are witnessing increasing trends of heavy rainfall, flash floods, cloudbursts, and landslides. The entire ecosystem of the Himalayan region is extremely fragile, and unplanned development has only worsened the situation.
